DeMar DeRozan is the 38th Best Player in Basketball

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Throughout the offseason, Pick and Popovich will rank the top 50 players in the NBA. To be clear, these are 50 best players for the 2016-17 season, regardless of team situation, past performance or future potential. If you’re trying to win a championship in 2016-17, these are the 50 players you’d want most. 

Why He’s Great: DeMar DeRozan does two things very well: he gets to the basket, and he draws fouls. He does them better than just about anyone. he makes 63% of his shots within three feet of the basket. Only centers do that. James Harden is the only other guard in that class. Speaking of Harden, only he and DeMarcus Cousins shot more free throws last year. If you want someone to do those two specific things, you’d be hard pressed to find someone better than DeRozan.

But give DeMar credit, he’s trying to expand his game. He took almost two three-pointers per game last season and made almost 34% of them. That’s not good, but we’re talking about someone who takes more long-two’s than just about anyone in basketball. Any time he takes a step back and tries for the extra point is a good thing, and he’s finally hitting them at least at a league-average rate. That threat is largely responsible for his career high in points per game last year.

And hey, at least he tries on defense now! With his length he can almost always affect shooters, but he’s tall enough to switch onto most modern forwards. He’s a versatile C- defender which makes him a C+ or so overall. Teams can live with that considering what he provides on offense.

Why He’s Below No. 37 (C.J McCollum): C.J. may not be as big as DeMar, but he tries way harder on defense and is getting a lot better at just staying in front of guys and being helpful. That counts for something considering McCollum’s shooting makes him a more valuable offensive player. If a tiebreaker were necessary, it would go to C.J. for his passing as well.

DeRozan’s skill set is just so specific, you need to build around it and that’s a tough ask for someone who can’t shoot three’s or pass. That’s why the Raptors were so much better without him on the floor, their net rating jumped from +3.0 with him to +7.6 without him. Part of what made the Toronto bench so good was how freely they were able to move the ball without worrying about DeRozan’s isolations.

Take this stat, lineups with Kyle Lowry and Cory Joseph averaged 22.7 assists per 100 possessions. That’s more than any team averaged over the entire season and it’s not close. But the Raptors as a whole, including DeRozan’s minutes, were 28th in the league in assists per 100. That’s the DeRozan effect. It’s manageable with the right players around him, but if his team isn’t careful it’s just so easy to devolve into strict isolation basketball.

Kemba Walker is the 39th Best Player in Basketball

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Throughout the offseason, Pick and Popovich will rank the top 50 players in the NBA. To be clear, these are 50 best players for the 2016-17 season, regardless of team situation, past performance or future potential. If you’re trying to win a championship in 2016-17, these are the 50 players you’d want most. 

Why He’s Great: Kemba Walker has been miscast as a point guard for his entire career. In the past the Bobcats/Hornets have relied on him to initiate their offense and it’s failed. The system dragged, they were forced to play slow isolation ball and Walker seemed like a good stats, bad team guy. And then everything changed when Nic Batum became his backcourt mate.

Suddenly Walker could be a scorer and only a scorer, and boy howdy did he do it well last season. His assist rate hit a career low, but his points, field goal percentage and three-point percentage were all career highs. With Batum (and to a lesser extent Jeremy Lin) on the floor he finally got a chance to learn to move without the ball because for the first time in his career, someone else on the floor was capable of having the ball in their hands. He developed a decent right corner-three that became something of an off-ball trademark (48% from that right corner).

This is the player Walker was meant to be. He’s simply not a point guard, and if he has to be the only ball-handler on an offense it’s going to fail. But if he’s paired with some quick-twitch passers that allow him to do the things that he does well, he’s suddenly a near-All Star caliber player.

Why He’s Below No. 38 (DeMar DeRozan): Because DeRozan does everything Walker does but slightly better. Walker is good at getting to the rim, DeRozan is great. Walker is good at drawing fouls, DeRozan is great. The list goes on and on. DeRozan is basically just the better Walker.

Case in point: they share a major flaw: shot selection. Walker’s is better than DeMar’s, as DeRozan barely ever shoot’s three’s, but for Kemba to shoot in the mid-30’s percentage wise on virtually every region of long-two’s is simply unacceptable considering his volume. You can’t go 33-99 from a two-point region of the court and continue taking those shots. It’s bad basketball.

And it’s not as though Walker plays defense either. At least DeRozan is long and can challenge shots, but it takes real effort to hide Kemba defensively. It’s not that he’s outright terrible, but he’s too small to guard any position besides point guard and his effort doesn’t cut it against most of them. As his athleticism starts to wane that’s going to become a real problem. Actually it already is one. Walker is a one-dimensional scorer.

Why DeMar DeRozan Will Return to the Toronto Raptors

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Rather than answer whether or not DeMar DeRozan will come back to Toronto, let’s ask ourselves this: should the Raptors even want DeRozan back?

If he says “I’m coming back, give me the max,” they’ll have to do it. Toronto just came within two wins of the Finals. It’s the same logic that got Dwayne Casey an extension even though you just know Masai Ujiri is itching to fire him and will at the first sign of trouble next season. But does nearly winning a weak conference make this Toronto team viable?

They got extraordinarily lucky in these playoffs. Had Frank Vogel not used all-bench lineups at key points in Games 5 and 7 of their first round series with Indiana, the Raptors would likely have lost there for the third straight season. Had Miami stayed healthy, they would have lost in the second round.

Toronto’s roster is highly flawed. The offense is based far too much on isolations, the defense is based mostly on higher regular season effort that other teams don’t bother giving. They outperform their regular season expectations every year and then get far worse in the playoffs.

DeRozan doesn’t get as many calls, DeRozan’s defense slips, DeRozan is a big part of Toronto’s playoff failings. All things considered, the Raptors would probably be better off letting him go, trading Kyle Lowry and starting things over. They have plenty of draft picks and young players to kickstart a rebuild.

But again, they can’t do that. They have to bring the gang back for another shot, and this time next year we’ll be asking ourselves if Toronto can dump DeMar’s contract. If anything, their best bet is probably just hoping the Lakers do the wrong thing and convince him to come because hey, he’s an All Star and the Lakers should sign All Stars!

Ujiri would be thrilled if Mitch Kupchack decided to go that route, but at this point it seems unlikely. He’s going to give DeMar the max and regret it within six months.

Likely Contract: Five Years, Max